Earthquake Disaster Mitigation for Urban Transportation Systems: an Integrated Methodology That Builds on the Kobe and Northridge Experiences

Policy makers interested in evaluating the costs and benefits of earthquake retrofit and reconstruction strategies require a way to measure the benefits (costs avoided) of competing proposals. This requires an integrated, operational model of losses because of earthquake impacts on transportation and industrial capacity, and how these losses affect the metropolitan economy. This research examines several dimensions in the search for a “full-cost” measure of the economic impact of a 7.1 Elysian Park earthquake: structural damage, business interruptions, the effects of network disruption (increased travel costs and changes in trip behavior), and bridge repair costs (including supply-related additional labor inputs and endogenous price effects).